Elections 2018. Expectations. Eagle

We continue to collect expert opinions on what voter turnout could turn out to be at the 2018 presidential election in the regions of Russia. Today - Oryol region.
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In order to determine as accurately as possible the turnout level in March 2018, we will need data on turnout and results (percentages of votes for party lists and winning candidates) of elections in which the entire population of the territory under consideration is the so-called “big” campaigns. In total there are 4 types of such elections: presidential, gubernatorial, the State Duma and the regional Legislative Assembly. Comparison of trends in the appearance of different types of elections will help to make an assumption about the appearance at the presidential election.
Here is how the "big" campaigns of previous years passed in the Oryol region:
Elections to the State Duma:
2003: turnout - 73.8%, EP - 44.6%, Communist Party - 16.3%, Liberal Democratic Party - 11.2%, Rodina - 8.4%, the rest - less than 3%;
2007: turnout - 71.01%, EP - 59.85%, Communist Party - 17.58%, LDPR - 8.21%, CP - 7.26%, the rest - less than 3%;
2011: turnout - 64.7%, EP - 38.9%, Communist Party - 32.0%, Liberal Democratic Party - 12.2%, CP - 11.2%, the rest - less than 3%;
2016: turnout - 53.5%, EP - 47.93%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 17.86%, LDPR - 15.33%, CP - 5.63%, “Communists of Russia” - 3.74%, the rest - less than 3%.
Election of the President of the Russian Federation:
2004: turnout - 82.95%, V. Putin - 61.66%;
2008: turnout - 75.57%, D. Medvedev - 66.38%;
2012: turnout - 68.04%, V. Putin - 52.84%.
Elections of deputies of the Oryol regional council of people's deputies (until 1998 - the Oryol regional Duma):
Until 2007, elections were held by the majority system (only in single-mandate constituencies).
2007: turnout - 56.53%, EP - 39.02%, Communist Party - 23.78%, CP - 12.60%, Liberal Democratic Party - 7.34%, ATP - 6.98%, the rest - less than 5% ;
2011: turnout - 63.75%, EP - 40.55%, KPRF - 32.42%, LDPR - 13.28%, CP - 9.80%, the rest - less than 5%;
2016: turnout - 53.31%, EP - 45.96%, KPRF - 23.06%, LDPR - 18.34%, CP - 9.26% (all over 5%).
Election of the governor of the Oryol region:
1997: turnout - 70.98%, Yegor Stroyev - 95.1%;
2001: turnout - 48.31%, Yegor Stroyev - 78.23%;
2014: a turnout of 62.65%, Vadim Potsky - 89.17%.
As you can see, almost everywhere there is a decrease in turnout. The exception is the election of the governor, where in 2014 there was an increase in turnout compared with 2001, and the presidential election - there, even with a slight decrease in turnout, remains at a fairly good level. The peculiarity of the Oryol region is that it is one of the few regions that almost all the time is headed by the representatives of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (except for 2009-14,when United Russia’s Alexander Kozlov was appointed governor). A Communist, Andrei Klychkov, appointed on October 5, is also in the post of acting governor. The presidential election will be for him at the same time and the test of strength, and a kind of "training" before the gubernatorial elections to be held in September 2018.
Veronika Katkova, regional coordinator of the “Voice for fair elections” movement in the Oryol region, believes that it is too early to make predictions: “It’s very difficult to give any figures on turnout. Because so far there is no clarity. I think the most accurate forecast will be clear already in February."
The journalist of the orelgrad.ru edition, Vladislav Chislov, believes that the turnout may exceed the 2012 figure: “Presidential elections will always mobilize the population. <...> Of course, we will not be able to turn out higher than other regions, but from 70% to 80% will be for sure. "
Well, something like this.
The full version of the material with detailed comments of experts can be read here.
Agenda, trends, opinions, exclusive. Informally on the Telegram-channel "Davydov.Indeks".

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